it's a little late in the game, don't you think??? :lolBIG:
anyway, there are 2 areas you need to focus on primarily:
1) statistical handicapping (recent performances, points for and against, broken down both home/away, etc.)
2) subjective handicapping (injuries, travel/fatigue, previous head-to-head match-ups, etc.)
check out each team's most recent 8-12 games played (in my opinion, some handicappers go further back, some assess even less games recently played). but be sure to assess each team's home and/or away stats for the upcoming game. don't mix the two. NBA teams have varying degrees of home court advantage/visiting court disadvantage...
if you use a team's overall recent performance you'll get inaccurate prediction. always separate home and away values.
be careful now though, the run up to the play-offs is difficult for the better teams in the league, as far as handicapping their recent performances...
a lot of excellent teams have coasted through the last couple weeks, far from playing up to their full abilities. be careful in assessing their last few home or road games. you won't get an accurate assessment of their abilities...
hey, no one said this was easy!
then after you have your predicted scores based on each team's current performances in an upcoming game (purely statistical handicapping up until this point)...
THEN... you have to consider subjective factors. take into account any injuries. consider each team's recent travel/motivation issues (or lack of motivation) although the latter is less prominent in the playoffs since you won't see teams playing 4 games in 5 nights, and the further you get into the playoffs the more you can expect each team to be fully motivated, etc. etc.
go back and look at how each team played head-to-head throughout the year. look for advantages/disadvantages.
this is a pretty quick overview. i hope it helps.
anyway, there are 2 areas you need to focus on primarily:
1) statistical handicapping (recent performances, points for and against, broken down both home/away, etc.)
2) subjective handicapping (injuries, travel/fatigue, previous head-to-head match-ups, etc.)
check out each team's most recent 8-12 games played (in my opinion, some handicappers go further back, some assess even less games recently played). but be sure to assess each team's home and/or away stats for the upcoming game. don't mix the two. NBA teams have varying degrees of home court advantage/visiting court disadvantage...
if you use a team's overall recent performance you'll get inaccurate prediction. always separate home and away values.
be careful now though, the run up to the play-offs is difficult for the better teams in the league, as far as handicapping their recent performances...
a lot of excellent teams have coasted through the last couple weeks, far from playing up to their full abilities. be careful in assessing their last few home or road games. you won't get an accurate assessment of their abilities...
hey, no one said this was easy!
then after you have your predicted scores based on each team's current performances in an upcoming game (purely statistical handicapping up until this point)...
THEN... you have to consider subjective factors. take into account any injuries. consider each team's recent travel/motivation issues (or lack of motivation) although the latter is less prominent in the playoffs since you won't see teams playing 4 games in 5 nights, and the further you get into the playoffs the more you can expect each team to be fully motivated, etc. etc.
go back and look at how each team played head-to-head throughout the year. look for advantages/disadvantages.
this is a pretty quick overview. i hope it helps.
